Guizhou Moutai (600519) Commentary on Major Events: A New Start of 100 Billion Gathers People’s Heart

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Commentary on Major Events: A New Start of 100 Billion Gathers People’s Heart
Matters: The company issued an announcement saying that the sales plan for Moutai in 2020 was 3.Around 45, on December 27, the company merged with the 2019 National Distributors’ Association, which summarized the work in 2019 and set the market work in 2020.We comment below. The initial successful conclusion, the 100 billion target was successfully achieved.It was said at the meeting that in 2019, Moutai Group successfully achieved the 100 billion yuan target and achieved the 13th Five-Year Plan target one year in advance.In terms of joint stock companies, since the establishment of the two-wheel drive strategy for Moutai and series of wines, the development trend has been good. Especially, the Moutai wine market has stabilized the overall situation and momentum, and has changed out of a new situation and new momentum: 1) stabilize the overall market structure and gradually realize the “monthly”Selling “80%” plan, in accordance with the ratio of “6: 2: 2”, guiding storefronts, wholesale, inventory planning arrangements, expanding market circulation, and flying prices are generally in a stable range; 2) Promoting reform of the marketing system, in which a group is establishedMarketing companies, cancellation of Moutai e-commerce companies, withdrawal of associates, etc., the marketing system was initially formed; 3) Improving the level of cultural services, the phenomenon of submitting bills and orders was completely changed, and the distributors focused on providing culture and services; 4) Optimizing the governance system and capabilities, Comprehensively retire the national wine trademark, adjust and optimize the product structure, and increase the launch of self-operated channels.For the series of wines, the sales volume is expected to reach 3 tons, the sales income is 102 trillion, an increase of 13%, and the price of ton will increase by 15%. Next year’s high volume increase 重庆耍耍网 will continue to treat prices reasonably and reasonably.The company plans to launch about 3 Moutai liquor next year.45 minimum limit, an increase of 8% over the previous year ‘s planned volume, of which: 1) continue to arrange contracts with merchants in accordance with the principle of no increase and no reduction, the overseas market is 2,000 tons; 2) follow the idea of arranging, and arrange business plans for group e-commerce and group purchase;3) Effectively increase the scale of self-employment, in principle, it must increase exponentially.In terms of price, the company proposes to make unified market financing as a key task, to treat prices reasonably and to improve its ability to resist risks.We believe that this year, especially since the second half of the year, the company has directly and effectively achieved price levels in a stable range by grasping the pace of progress, strengthening terminal management and gradually diversifying direct sales channels. We judge that the short-term price increase may still be small.Adjust the year of infrastructure construction and continue to steadily promote the diversification of channels to achieve reasonable prices. With moderate volume next year, stable demand and steady advancement of direct sales, the performance is still expected to maintain high robustness. Promote the establishment of a new marketing system, and the direct sales system will gradually improve.The company proposes that next year’s Maotai liquor market will pay more attention to overall integration and implement non-equilibrium distribution. In the peak season of the Spring Festival, about 7,500 tons will be focused on alternative social channels, while taking into account e-commerce and supermarket channels.The company mentioned that a new marketing system will be established at the end of the year. The core lies in anti-corrosion, price control, and efficiency enhancement. There are several points worth paying attention to: 1) The goal of becoming a group marketing company is a dealer.The sales company coordinated the overall arrangement and unified arrangements; 2) After the retreat of Moutai E-commerce Company, it quickly pushed back online and continued to optimize the self-operated system; 3) The construction of the window was required, and at least 80% of the wine was sold at the front desk, which completely changed the windowThe current status of the display; 4) The reform of advance payment is proposed. In principle, the payment can be made one month in advance to reduce the pressure and burden on dealers. Steady words take the lead to consolidate the foundation, and peace of mind consolidates people’s hearts.The company continues to lead the positioning of the next year’s infrastructure year. Secretary Li Baofang proposed to stabilize the market by 2020, consolidate the foundation and seek the future, improve the new system to stimulate new vitality, and respond directly to important issues such as group marketing companies and planning arrangements.Gathering people’s hearts is the top priority. It is commendable to state that dealers are an indispensable important force and valuable wealth of Moutai. It is problem-oriented to live in peace and be in dire straits.General Manager Li Jingren also said that next year is the starting year for Maotai to strengthen its foundation after entering the 100 billion yuan.Looking forward to next year, we believe that the stability of Moutai’s demand remains good, the company continues to improve its sound marketing system, optimize channel management, and enhance market co-ordination capabilities. Next year’s volume and price planning, moderate growth in volume and reasonable price will be reasonable and stable.Established, stable and far-reaching in the post-100 billion era. Maintain target price of 1250 yuan and “strong push” level.The company will adjust the infrastructure year next year. This meeting will focus on rationally treating prices and promoting the establishment of a new marketing system. After 100 billion yuan, the steady growth path is still clear.The EPS forecast for 2019-2021 is temporarily maintained.7/39.8/47.6 yuan, corresponding to an estimated 33/29/24 times, maintaining a target price of 1,250 yuan, maintaining a “strong push” level. Risk warning: The prosperity of high-end wines is down, marketing reforms are less than expected, and market prices have fallen sharply.